The Fight for Ukraine

Earlier this month, the World Affairs Council of West Michigan hosted Dr. Matthew Rojansky, of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and an expert on U.S. relations with the states of the former Soviet Union, especially Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, to speak on the crisis still brewing in Ukraine and what that means for the rest of Europe, the US, and the world. A spark was lit in Ukraine after an over-the-top reaction by the government to the mostly peaceful protests that broke out in Kiev in late 2013, but trouble had been percolating for years, as Ukraine lies torn between an inviting European Union to its west and a corrupt, complex post-Soviet legacy to its east.

(For an example of the excesses of the regime of former president Viktor Yanukovych, just look at his palace.)

The crisis began the evening of November 21st, 2013, in what is now known as the Euromaidan, which means, literally, "Euro Square".  The mass demonstrations demanded closer European integration, and eventually, after the brutal reaction to the unrest by police and Yanukovych’s regime, the resignation of the president and the election of a new government. The protest became politicized and radicalized by the gross mistreatment of the protestors, which included snipers high above Kiev firing down upon unsuspecting protestors, and a so-called “anti-Bill of Rights” pushed through by Yanukovych combined with a full-fledged “Battle for the Maidan” in mid-February 2014 solidified the revolution.

At this point, Putin and Russia began to lick their chops at the prospect of regaining territory in the already heavily pro-Russian regions of southeast Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula. His thinly disguised support for pro-Russian rebels (who ‘aren’t Russian but only happen to wear Russian uniforms…maybe there was a very large wholesale discount at a local supply store), coupled with the shooting down of Malaysia Air flight MH17 brought international attention to a crisis that had been boiling over for months.

Why didn’t the Malaysia Air flight avoid flying over the war-torn region? Well, Ukraine is big. Really big. Which makes the geopolitics of this conflict inescapable.

So what is Putin’s endgame?

Domestic politics. He's worried that this could potentially happen in Russia? The situation is similar: a corrupt ruler, not a great economy, a poor record on human rights. It’s in his best interest to ensure that the Ukrainian people are worse off when all is said and done. He wants to broadcast a message that revolutions are bad for business.

His credibility. He must win versus the evil West. That’s not too tough of a picture to paint, with all sorts of fascists and far-right Neo-Nazis popping out of the Ukrainian woodwork to support the revolution. After all, Russian nationalism has traditionally been a bestseller. Even with the Russian economy tanking, his approval ratings are in the 80s.

Geopolitics. Is he gunning for a new Soviet Union? Simply, no. But he does want to build a sphere of influence around Russia to combat both the EU and NATO. Seeing Ukraine join one or both of those would be a huge blow. He needs the post-Soviet in his (Russian word for pocket).

Good news for him:

• The Ukraine military is significantly outmatched by its Russian counterparts
• The nationalist groups that dominated the new Ukrainian elections give him an easy target to propagandize against
• He controls his domestic media and much of the Ukrainian media
• He controls the flow of natural gas as well, in what is a fiercely cold Eastern European winter

Since the talk, there has been news of a cease-fire in Ukraine, an agreement negotiated by the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia. The headline of the Wall Street Journal article perhaps says it all: In Ukraine, Cease-Fire Agreement Is Met With Doubt.

Combined with the Washington Post headline, Putin appears the biggest winner of Ukrainian cease-fire talks, it’s a grim picture.

So what is there to do in Ukraine?

• Well, first, don't send John Kerry. Nothing against him (actually...never mind) this isn't the time for photo ops. This is not a poverty related protest.
• There needs to be more international observation to prevent false propaganda. Better border security is crucial too.
• Realistic sanctions are a must. They can send a moral message and can change conduct of a bad actor over time. But don't overstate their effect, and only sanctioning a handful of rich people makes no sense.

How can Ukraine succeed?

• Must combat corruption. It is currently the most corrupt post-Soviet state. The new government must make near-term changes.
• The US can open doors to them, and show what they'll be missing by choosing Russia over the West.
• There are unfortunately no easy answers; this conflict must be taken seriously.

Dr. Rojansky’s final point was a sombering one: “If Ukraine turns into social economic disaster it will be a European disaster.”

A New Era at Michigan, and Praise for a Michigan Man

The end of 2014 brings with it many things: a pause to remember the year that has passed, a sense of excitement for what is to come, and perhaps a temperature-related angst unique to that moment you realize your car door is frozen shut and no matter how hard you pull it, it just won’t open.

For Michigan football fans, it brought also a long-fated departure, a much-hyped arrival, and a poignant reminder of what truly is important in college sports. With the pain of going bowl-less yet again only made worse by our two biggest rivals excelling annually on the national stage, changes had to be made and, reversing a trend of seemingly everything related to Michigan football going awry, they actually were.  

For all the concerns that interim AD Jim Hackett bore a resume too similar to that of epic failure Dave Brandon, what with the "Michigan Man” credentials and Fortune 500 CEO credibility, his two month stint has already bore more substance than the pizza peddler could muster in four years. In a perfect world, you wouldn’t necessarily even know the athletic director’s name, let alone know the details of his C.V. Not so in this era of big-time college football. Still, he has one crucial job, before he slinks back to the shadows to fundraise and balance budgets, and that, at least at Michigan, is to hire a winning football coach. 

Brady Hoke has many positive attributes, as a man and as a football coach, but tallies in the W column proved to not be one of them. Eventually, that’s the only thing that matters, and ultimately what spelled the end for both Brandon and Hoke. 

But hark! Behold a new era, one of headsets and reasonable ticket prices and players that improve game to game and year to year. Jim Harbaugh returning to Ann Arbor, resplendent in his khakis and cocky grin, is a Christmas and New Year’s present rolled into one, and he brings with him long-awaited tidings of great football. For a fan-base in need of something to smile about after too long being force-fed the football equivalent of Domino’s Pizza, the excitement and anticipation could not be higher. 

Maybe the Harbaugh-mania is getting a bit out of control.

Before the hype and eagerness for next season dominates every conversation Michigan fans have between now and Labor Day weekend, special mention and consideration must be given to Devin Gardner, the oft-criticized quarterback whose career is collateral damage of the administrative and coaching turmoil in the last five year. Recruited by Rich Rod, inherited by Hoke, switched to wide receiver then back to quarterback after an injury to Denard Robinson in 2012, Devin survived multiple position coaches, a sieve-like offensive line, and inconsistent running support throughout his career. After entering Michigan as the number one rated dual-threat quarterback recruit in the nation, he will leave with a legacy of inconsistency, flashes of brilliance followed by maddening mistakes, and an inescapable sense of what-might-have-been. Knock him if you must for the miscues, giveaways, and inopportune gaffes, but remember that this wasn’t the style of offense he signed up for, and a lesser man may have (and probably should have) up and quit football in the first place after taking so much unceasing punishment, in the dark days of the 2013 season in particular.

The lasting image of Gardner, however, won’t be his stellar performance under the lights against Notre Dame in 2013, or his interceptions and fumbles versus Michigan State this past October. No, he will hopefully be remembered for his leadership and class in times good and bad throughout his career, exemplified most succinctly by his consoling of JT Barrett after the Ohio State quarterback's season was ended with a broken ankle. 

Now that is a Michigan Man of whom we can all be proud.

In his own words: "I played and won in front of the largest crowd to ever witness a football game in the 145-year history of the sport, gotten a shoutout from the President of the United State of America and (had the chance) to be an inspiration to patients at Mott Children's Hospital, who are fighting fights much greater than football games. This experience here will be tough to top, and I'm sad that it has to end. I'm a believer in the saying coined by the great Bo Schembechler. 'Those who stay will be champions.' I stayed, and I will live the rest of my life as a champion."

It even inspired the praise of those Buckeye heathens*.

*Go Oregon next Monday.